Should you rent or buy at this point in your life?
Adjust the assumptions to match your market. We compute the deterministic outcome alongside an uncertainty range — because real markets don't run on point estimates.
Built and reviewed by Stephen Omukoko Okoth
Mathematical Economist · ex-Morgan Stanley FI · Equilar
Inputs
The home and the loan
Inputs
Ownership running costs
Inputs
The renting alternative
Uncertainty
How volatile are the assumptions?
The deterministic answer assumes the rates above hold every year. Real markets fluctuate. These sliders set how much each rate could vary year to year — the chart and probability bands above update automatically.
10,000 simulated futures, recomputed live as you edit any input. Deterministic projection updates instantly; probability bands catch up shortly after.
Verdict
Renting and investing wins at this horizon.
KSh 6.00M better off after 10 years.
Probabilistic view: buying wins in 12.6% of 10,000 simulated futures — high confidence (renting wins).
Buying does not overtake renting within this horizon. Either extend the holding period or revisit price-to-rent assumptions.
Result
Net worth in 10 years
If you buy
KSh 9.34M
Range: KSh 5.42M – KSh 13.89M
If you rent
KSh 15.35M
Range: KSh 8.41M – KSh 24.75M
Solid lines: deterministic projection at your central inputs. Shaded bands: range covering 80% of simulated futures (P10 to P90) given the volatility you set.
Cost mechanics
Where the money goes
Monthly mortgage
KSh 112,471
True monthly cost of owning
KSh 130,480
Mortgage + tax + maintenance + HOA, net of tax shield
Average monthly rent
KSh 86,675
Including rent inflation over horizon
Break-even
Beyond horizon